Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 21.340467 25.614148 30.305428 35.809144 42.059906 48.909395 56.952527
2025-09-21 15.353110 21.037319 27.900504 36.671423 47.448683 60.123113 76.009866
2025-09-28 10.910583 16.769087 24.433721 34.926611 48.626521 65.606195 87.910725
2025-10-05 8.960157 15.133134 23.745493 36.179025 53.165779 75.037204 104.738611
2025-10-12 7.424926 13.698571 22.982821 37.034254 56.999810 83.549727 120.614520
2025-10-19 6.201196 12.453611 22.233746 37.688299 60.430597 91.539908 136.016704
2025-10-26 5.299360 11.529070 21.786138 38.636803 64.212045 100.064864 152.379024
2025-11-02 4.308052 10.232937 20.540921 38.179634 65.814870 105.528030 164.666685
2025-11-09 3.614601 9.329599 19.793194 38.369568 68.304388 112.263048 178.883348
2025-11-16 2.974396 8.381734 18.819007 38.050534 69.917966 117.715350 191.394304
2025-11-23 2.361791 7.336360 17.504118 36.990057 70.227475 121.170651 201.060723
2025-11-30 2.068677 6.940940 17.351072 37.903943 73.724892 129.508699 218.092491
2025-12-07 1.637654 6.124679 16.314328 37.252189 74.797984 134.495274 230.841873
2025-12-14 1.397275 5.736356 16.106035 38.121200 78.512009 143.800082 250.520292
2025-12-21 1.022183 4.821222 14.595167 36.321430 77.461627 145.472579 258.572674
2025-12-28 0.895787 4.621442 14.660459 37.612299 81.906909 156.117179 280.783615
2026-01-04 0.766666 4.361561 14.537058 38.493669 85.641098 165.715111 301.621630
2026-01-11 0.648036 4.087759 14.329900 39.167617 89.010321 174.807469 321.901066
2026-01-18 0.558527 3.886664 14.272481 40.144847 92.978691 185.018359 344.224820
2026-01-25 0.436832 3.479786 13.589290 39.673852 94.154032 190.521856 359.107979
2026-02-01 0.355724 3.207919 13.224710 39.869535 96.601212 198.256999 377.790538
2026-02-08 0.277416 2.891162 12.662439 39.540842 97.978289 204.156856 393.591371
2026-02-15 0.201352 2.512678 11.821847 38.448123 97.739538 207.181575 404.682882